How The Strange Campaign Broke the Traditional Coach of the Year Mould.
Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It often functions as a type of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our preseason predictions.
Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.
However the current field is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against several other elite coaches.
This is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5
Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.
Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's sustained dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic out of broken plays.
Johnson arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each bet – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.
During a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a normal year!
The area where his candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained success. But he comes up short here.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record
The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.
Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.
Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.
Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.
The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record
Each Coach of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.
Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.
Still
