A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
